🌡️📉Inflation Showing Signs Of Cooling Down

K, here’s da scoops on da latest inflation report. March time, inflation wen slow down big time, cuz gas prices wen go down. So, prices neva go up dat fast, like how it been in da last two years. Dat means mo’ bettah fo’ us guys in da US, an’ give President Biden someting good fo’ talk about. 🇺🇸💸

Da Consumer Price Index wen go up 5% from last year till March. Das down from 6% in February, an’ da slowest since May 2021. But, da report still get some stuffs dat make us worry about inflation sticking around. Da “core index” dat try fo’ see da real price trends by taking out da food an’ fuel costs, wen go up 5.6% from last year. Das up small kine from February’s 5.5%, an’ da first time da yearly numbah wen go up since September. 📊🧐

Da new inflation data get some mix kine signals. Get some parts dat show dat da price increases stay getting bettah, but da progress stay slow. Da Federal Reserve stay in one tricky spot right now, cuz dem guys stay in charge fo’ fight against inflation. Fo’ little bit ova one year, dey been trying fo’ bring da prices back undah control, by raising interest rates to almost 5% from almost zero in March 2022. Dey trying fo’ slow down da economy an’ bring down costs. 🏦🤔

Da Fed guys stay trying fo’ figure out how dea policy changes stay working, an’ how much mo’ dey gotta do fo’ make sure dat da price increases stay undah control. Inflation stay slowing down afta peaking at 9% last summah, but da process stay slow. Still get choke ways fo’ go back to da 2% inflation dat stay normal befo’ da pandemic in 2020. 🌐🔍

Get some uncertainty about how fast an’ how much da price increases goin’ cool down cuz get some recent stuffs dat wen happen. Last month, get some big bank blowups, an’ dat could slow down da economy, but nobody know how much. Some Fed guys stay telling fo’ be mo’ careful cuz get all dis chaos, but oddahs stay saying dat da central bank should stay focus on fight against da rising prices. 🏢💥

Da new data make one strong case fo’ da Fed fo’ do anoddah hike in May, an’ go mo’ slow afta dat, says Blerina Uruci, da chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price. She also say dat “it goin’ take time fo’ bring inflation down.” Da Fed guys get one 2% inflation target, but dey use one different index fo’ measure dat: da Personal Consumption Expenditures measure. Dat one stay high too. 🎯📈

Da Wednesday report show one small kine increase in core inflation on top da annual basis, but Ms. Uruci say get some good signs too. Da core inflation measure wen slow down small kine on da monthly basis, wen compare da March numbahs to da February ones. An’ some important services prices wen cool down too. Fo’ example, da rent fo’ primary residences wen go up 0.5% compared to da month befo’, down from 0.8% from da previous reading. Housing inflation suppose to slow down in 2023, an’ looks like dat’s starting to happen. 🏘️📉

“Get signs in da details dat show we stay making progress fo’ slow down inflation,” Ms. Uruci said. “Not wea it needs to be, but it’s progress.” 🌟👍

But dat no mean inflation goin’ disappear fast an’ smooth. Da overall index slowdown might not last: Big part of da decline stay cuz gas prices wen go down, but we no know if dat goin’ stay. 🚗⛽

An’ get some oddah indexes dat still show fast price increases, like new vehicles an’ hotel rooms. 🚘🏨

As da central bankers try fo’ bring inflation down, some stay saying dey might need fo’ raise interest rates mo’ higha. Da Fed’s latest estimates, afta Silicon Valley Bank an’ Signature Bank wen collapse in March, say dat dey might lift rates anoddah quarter-point dis year, to just ova 5%. Da central bank goin’ announce da next policy decision on May 3. 🏦🔺

John C. Williams, da president of da Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said dat da Fed get mo’ work fo’ do fo’ bring down price increases an’ dat da central bank’s March forecast fo’ one mo’ quarter-point rate move still stay one “reasonable starting place.” But Austan D. Goolsbee, da president of da Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, say dat da recent bank failures might make it harda fo’ businesses an’ peopo fo’ get credit, slow down da economy, an’ create one “need to be cautious.” 😟🚨

Higha interest rates make it mo’ expensive fo’ borrow money fo’ buy house or make business mo’ big. Dat slow down da economy. Demand cooling down, an’ da labor market stay softening, so wage growth stay slowing down too. All dat might help fo’ make inflation cool down. 🏠💼

President Biden stay celebrating da “continued progress” on top da inflation. In one written statement, Biden wen talk about da $1.40 decline in gas prices from last summah an’ da monthly decrease in food costs. Dose tings stay important fo’ shaping how people see da economy, which stay mostly negative two years into his term. 🇺🇸🎉

“Today’s report show continued progress in our fight against inflation,” Mr. Biden said. “Inflation still stay too high, but dis progress means mo’ breathing room fo’ hard-working Americans — wit wages now higha dan nine months ago, afta accounting fo’ inflation.” 📝👨‍👩‍👧‍👦

Republicans stay attacking Mr. Biden ova da wage figures an’ da overall persistence of high inflation, which stay bugging Mr. Biden throughout his time in office. 🐘🥊

Da White House economists stay believing dat da economy stay finally making one slow-but-sure move to “steady, stable growth.” Job growth stay slowing down, but still stay way higha than wat Mr. Biden last year said would be necessary fo’ bring price growth undah control. Da global oil prices, even though stay up an’ down, wen go down from wea dey stay wen Russia wen invade Ukraine one year ago. An’ da administration guys say dey stay seeing early signs dat housing inflation stay slowing down, which could help fo’ bring down da headline inflation rate in da coming months. 🏛️📊🏠

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NOW IN ENGLISH

🌡️📉 Inflation Showing Signs Of Cooling Down

“There are signs in the details that suggest we’re making progress toward slowing inflation,” Ms. Uruci said. “It’s not where it needs to be, but it’s progress.” 🌟👍

However, that doesn’t mean inflation will fade smoothly and quickly. The overall index’s slowdown might not last: a significant part of the decline is due to falling gas prices, but it’s uncertain whether that will continue. 🚗⛽

And some other indexes continue to show rapid price increases, like new vehicles and hotel rooms. 🚘🏨

As central bankers attempt to curb inflation, some suggest that they might need to raise interest rates even higher. The Fed’s latest estimates, after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed in March, indicate that they might lift rates another quarter-point this year, to just above 5%. The central bank will announce its next policy decision on May 3. 🏦🔺

John C. Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said that the Fed has more work to do in bringing down price increases and that the central bank’s March forecast for one more quarter-point rate move still remains a “reasonable starting place.” But Austan D. Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, suggests that recent bank failures could make it more difficult for businesses and people to access credit, slowing the economy and creating a “need to be cautious.” 😟🚨

Higher interest rates make borrowing money to buy a house or expand a business more expensive. That slows economic activity. As demand cools and the labor market softens, wage growth is also moderating. All of that could contribute to cooling inflation. 🏠💼

President Biden celebrates the “continued progress” on inflation. In a written statement, Biden mentioned a $1.40 decline in gas prices from last summer and a monthly decrease in food costs. These factors are important for shaping people’s perception of the economy, which remains overwhelmingly negative two years into his term. 🇺🇸🎉

“Today’s report shows continued progress in our fight against inflation,” Mr. Biden said. “Inflation is still too high, but this progress means more breathing room for hard-working Americans — with wages now higher than they were nine months ago, after accounting for inflation.” 📝👨‍👩‍👧‍👦

Republicans are attacking Mr. Biden over the wage figures and the overall persistence of high inflation, which has plagued Mr. Biden throughout his tenure. 🐘🥊