📉💸💥 Da Inflation Battle No Yet Win? Not Yet.

Inflation wen drop from its 2022 heights, but economists stay worried ’bout its stubbornness. 😬📉

Inflation stay beginning fo’ abate meaningfully fo’ American consumers. Gas stay cheaper, eggs cost roughly half as much as dey did in January an’ prices no stay climbing as rapidly ‘cross one wide array of products. 🥚⬇️🛒

But at least one person stay yet fo’ express relief: Jerome H. Powell, da chair of da Federal Reserve. 🙇‍♂️🏦

Da Fed stay spend da past 15 months locked in one aggressive war against inflation, raising interest rates above 5 percent fo’ try get price increases back down to one more normal pace. Las’ week its officials wen announce dat dey stay skipping one rate increase in June, giving themselves mo’ time fo’ see how da already enacted changes stay playing out ‘cross da economy. ⏰📈

But Mr. Powell emphasized dat it stay too early fo’ declare victory in da battle against rapid price increases. 🚫🏆

Da reason: While less expensive gas an’ slower grocery price adjustments stay help overall inflation fo’ fall from its four-decade peak last summer, food an’ fuel costs tend to jump ’round one lot. Dat obscures underlying trends. An’ one measure of “core” inflation dat strips out food an’ fuel stay showing surprising staying power, as one range of purchases from dental care an’ hairstyling to education an’ car insurance continue fo’ climb quickly in price. 🍽️⛽💇‍♀️💰

Las’ week, Fed officials sharply marked up their forecast of how high core inflation would be at da end of 2023. Dey now see it at 3.9 percent, highah than da 3.6 percent dey predicted in March an’ nearly twice their 2 percent inflation target. 📈🔝📅

Da economic picture, in short, stay playing out on something of one split screen. While da steepest price increases appear fo’ be ova fo’ consumers — one relief fo’ many, an’ one development dat President Biden an’ his advisers have celebrated — Fed policymakers an’ many outside economists see continued reasons fo’ concern. Between da subtle signs dat inflation could stick ’round an’ da surprising resilience of da American economy, dey believe dat central bankers might need fo’ do mo’ fo’ cool growth an’ rein in demand fo’ prevent unusually elevated price increases from becoming permanent. 📊🧐🔍

“Big picture: We stay making progress, but da progress stay slower than expected,” said Kristin J. Forbes, one Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist an’ one former Bank of England policymaker. “Inflation stay somewhat more stubborn dan we had hoped.” 💼🔍📈

A fresh Consumer Price Index inflation report las’ week showed dat inflation continued to moderate sharply on one overall basis in May. Dat measure helps fo’ feed into da Fed’s preferred measure, da Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which it uses to define its 2 percent target. Da fresh P.C.E. figures go be released on June 30. 📉📊📆

White House officials, who have spent months on da defensive ’bout da role dat pandemic spending undah Mr. Biden played in stoking demand an’ price increases, have greeted da recent cooling in inflation enthusiastically. 👥💼📉

“We have seen one very large drop in inflation, ova 50 percent,” said Lael Brainard, da chair of da White House National Economic Council, in one interview. 📉💼🙌

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NOW IN ENGLISH

📉💸💥 Has the inflation battle not yet been won? Not yet.

Inflation has dropped from its 2022 heights, but economists remain concerned about its stubbornness. 😬📉

Inflation is starting to decrease significantly for American consumers. Gas is cheaper, eggs cost roughly half as much as they did in January, and prices are not climbing as rapidly across a wide array of products. 🥚⬇️🛒

But at least one person is still expressing relief: Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve. 🙇‍♂️🏦

The Fed has spent the past 15 months locked in an aggressive war against inflation, raising interest rates above 5 percent in an attempt to bring price increases back down to a more normal pace. Last week, its officials announced that they are skipping a rate increase in June, giving themselves more time to see how the already enacted changes are playing out across the economy. ⏰📈

But Mr. Powell emphasized that it is too early to declare victory in the battle against rapid price increases. 🚫🏆

The reason: While less expensive gas and slower grocery price adjustments have helped overall inflation fall from its four-decade peak last summer, food and fuel costs tend to fluctuate significantly. This obscures underlying trends. And one measure of “core” inflation that strips out food and fuel is showing surprising staying power, as a range of purchases from dental care and hairstyling to education and car insurance continue to climb quickly in price. 🍽️⛽💇‍♀️💰

Last week, Fed officials sharply raised their forecast for how high core inflation would be at the end of 2023. They now see it at 3.9 percent, higher than the 3.6 percent they predicted in March and nearly twice their 2 percent inflation target. 📈🔝📅

The economic picture, in short, is playing out on something of a split screen. While the steepest price increases appear to be over for consumers — a relief for many and a development that President Biden and his advisers have celebrated — Fed policymakers and many outside economists see continued reasons for concern. Between the subtle signs that inflation could persist and the surprising resilience of the American economy, they believe that central bankers might need to do more to cool growth and rein in demand to prevent unusually elevated price increases from becoming permanent. 📊🧐🔍

“Big picture: We are making progress, but the progress is slower than expected,” said Kristin J. Forbes, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist and a former Bank of England policymaker. “Inflation is somewhat more stubborn than we had hoped.” 💼🔍📈

A recent Consumer Price Index inflation report last week showed that inflation continued to moderate sharply on an overall basis in May. This measure helps feed into the Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which it uses to define its 2 percent target. The fresh P.C.E. figures will be released on June 30. 📉📊📆

White House officials, who have spent months on the defensive about the role that pandemic spending under Mr. Biden played in stoking demand and price increases, have greeted the recent cooling in inflation enthusiastically. 👥💼📉

“We have seen a very large drop in inflation, over 50 percent,” said Lael Brainard, the chair of the White House National Economic Council, in one interview. 📉💼🙌