💼📈 Why Jobs Report Gonna Shake Up da Markets 📉💥
⬇️ Pidgin | ⬇️ ⬇️ English
Economists stay predictin’ dat last month employers goin’ make ’bout 225,000 jobs. A bigger-than-expected numbah could mess up da Federal Reserve’s plans fo’ control inflation. Labor pains? Economists an’ market participants stay get one big divide ’bout Friday’s payrolls report, set fo’ 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Dey tryin’ figure out wat da report goin’ say ’bout da Fed’s interest rate policy an’ da chance fo’ recession dis year.
Da numbahs fo’ watch: Economists wen poll by Bloomberg tink employers goin’ add ’bout 225,000 jobs in June, little bit slower dan before. But dese economists stay undahestimatin’ how much jobs stay growin’ — 14 outta da past 17 months, dey been gettin’ it wrong, includin’ one big miss last month. Da Fed goin’ keep one close eye on wage data. Dey tink average hourly earnings goin’ go up, an’ dat goin’ put pressure on Fed officials fo’ raise interest rates mo’ fo’ control inflation. Lorie Logan, da Dallas Fed president, da latest person fo’ join da chorus sayin’ mo’ rate increases needed. Da picture on jobs stay kinda confusin’. Gettin’ fewah job openings compared to last year, an’ da “great resignation” seem like one ting from da past, so wage growth should start fo’ ease.
Elsewhere, da job market stay on fire. On Thursday, data from da payroll processor ADP wen show one big jump in hiring, especially in da leisure an’ hospitality sector. One possible reason: “fun-flation,” wit’ restaurants still stayin’ full an’ peeps wantin’ getaways an’ vacations even wit’ higher prices. Also, JOLTS jobless claims wen hit one four-month low, says da Labor Department.
All dese signs point to one big numbah on Friday. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, wen write to investors sayin’ signs showin’ “another healthy jobs report.”
Wall Street stay gettin’ ready fo’ bad news. Da futures market dis mornin’ stay predictin’ dat da Fed goin’ raise rates 0.25 percentage points at da rate-settin’ meeting dis month an’ dat dey might do it again in September. Stocks an’ bonds wen go down aftah da ADP numbers wen come out, as investors stayin’ worried dat mo’ Fed moves goin’ hurt economic growth.
Da Fed’s own economists predict one mild recession fo’ da fourth quarter. But dat prediction could change dependin’ on da jobs numbahs dis Friday. Minutes from da Fed’s recent rate-settin’ meeting say da staff sees da economy growin’ slowly an’ avoidin’ a downturn as almost as likely as the mild-recession baseline.
NOW IN ENGLISH
📈💼 Why Big Jobs Report Could Shake Up the Markets 🌪️
Economists have forecasted that employers created 225,000 jobs last month. A bigger-than-expected number could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation. Labor pains? Economists and market participants are deeply divided about Friday’s payrolls report, due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, and what it may signal for the Fed’s interest rate policy and the chances of a recession this year.
The numbers to watch: Economists polled by Bloomberg have estimated that employers added 225,000 jobs in June, which would represent a slight cooling of the labor market. But economists have underestimated the strength of job growth in 14 of the past 17 months, including a big miss last month. The Fed will be closely watching wage data. It’s expected that average hourly earnings ticked up month-on-month, keeping the pressure on Fed officials to raise interest rates further in an effort to tame inflation. On Thursday, Lorie Logan, the Dallas Fed president, became the latest voting member of the rates committee to say more increases were needed. The picture on jobs is confusing. There are far fewer vacancies than a year ago, and the “great resignation” seems to be a thing of the past, signs that wage growth should begin to ease.
Elsewhere, the labor market seems to be running red hot. on Thursday, data from the payroll processor ADP showed another surge in hiring, particularly in the leisure and hospitality sector. One possible reason: “fun-flation,” with restaurants remaining full and demand for getaways and vacations brisk despite soaring prices. And so-called JOLTS jobless claims fell to a four-month low, according to data released on Thursday by the Labor Department.
Those figures suggest a big number on Friday. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note to investors on Thursday that signs pointed to “another healthy jobs report.”
Wall Street seems to be bracing for bad news. The futures market this morning was pricing in a 0.25 percentage point rise at the Fed’s rate-setting meeting this month and growing odds for a second increase in September. Stocks and bonds declined on Thursday after the ADP numbers were released, as investors fretted that further Fed moves could harm economic growth.
