🌴 U.S. Job Growt Slow Down, But Stay Strong 💪
Da U.S. economy stay makin’ plenny jobs in March, but wen slow down cuz interest rates stay goin’ up. Employas wen add 236,000 jobs on top one seasonally adjusted basis, according to da Labor Department report on one Friday. Dat’s less den da average 334,000 jobs wen add ova da last six months. Da unemployment rate wen drop to 3.5 percent, from 3.6 percent in February. 📉📊
Da growth in average hourly earnings ova da past year wen slow down to 4.2 percent, da slowest pace since July 2021. Dis one sign da Federal Reserve like see fo’ help stop da inflation. Da average workweek wen get shorter cuz no moa staffing shortages dat wen make workas cover moa hours. ⏰💸
Preston Caldwell, one chief U.S. economist at Morningstar Research, said da data give moa hope dat da Fed can cool off da economy without making one recession. “Da range of options fo’ one soft landing stay getting moa big,” he said. “Wage growth stay mostly normal now without big jump in unemployment. And one year ago, plenny peepo neva tink dat goin’ happen.” 🕶️🎢
Da good news go to President Biden, who wen say fo’ moa den one year dat job creation get fo’ slow down to about 150,000 jobs a month fo’ help stop da fast rise in consumer prices and bring back one sense of economic stability. Mr. Biden like make strong job growth and show peepo dat inflation stay getting moa cool. 🇺🇸🌟
Da stock markets stay closed fo’ Good Friday, so da bond traders wen give most of da investor reaction. Yields stay going up, showing confidence dat da economy stay strong enough fo’ da Fed to keep raising interest rates. 🏦📈
Even job creation stay slowing down, da labor market wen do one amazing ting: da lowest unemployment rate eva fo’ Black workas, at 5 percent. Dat means da smallest gap between da rates fo’ Black and white peepo. Historically, workas who stay marginalized get one chance wen get moa job openings. 🤝🌍
But, forecastas expect one big slow down in growth latah in 2023, and dat could mean moa pink slips wen businesses no like keep workas cuz dea profits stay going down. 📉💼
Da March employment data, showing 27 months in a row of growth, wen get collected befo’ two banks wen fail and peepo wen start worrying about oddah financial institutions. Dat kine ting can make lending moa tight fo’ da whole economy, maybe making consumer spending less and stopping small businesses from growing. 🏦💣
Da Federal Reserve stay raising interest rates fo’ ova one year fo’ control inflation, but da banks going down stay making tings moa complicated. If da reaction stay strong enough, could even make da chances of one big recession moa high. 🎢💥
Fed officials wen raise rates at dea last meeting on March 22 and wen forecast dey might raise ’em one moa time dis year. Da Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, wen say dat da central bank can do moa or less depending on how bad da fallout stay. 🏛️🔨
Da March report stay da last monthly jobs data befo’ Da next Fed meeting, coming up in early May. 🗓️📌
One contraction stay showing in plenny industries, like retail, manufacturing, construction, and real estate finance. All dese stay moa sensitive to borrowing costs and wen lose jobs or stay da same ova da month. 🏗️🛍️
Oddah industries dat wen grow fast, like hospitals, hotels, and restaurants, wen slow down small kine. Overall, employers in leisure and hospitality still stay 2.2 percent below dea prepandemic staffing levels, and one full recovery might take long time. 🏨🍽️
One sign of wass coming, job openings wen drop big time in February, bringing da number of openings per available worka to one level dat, even tho still high, stay moa close to da historical average. Surveys of both manufacturers and service-industry firms wen come in weaker den expected dis week, wit moa employers starting to say business stay contracting instead of expanding. 📋📉
“Only get few ways fo’ handle dat, and da main one stay cutting head count,” said Thomas Simons, one economist at da investment banking firm Jefferies. “Even tho businesses wen struggle real hard fo’ fill positions, by da end of da summer, gotta make some decisions.” 🏢💡
Layoffs stay low all ova da economy fo’ da past year, cuz workas wen quit jobs by demselves and companies wen hold onto anyone who stay. But dat stay changing now. 😕🔄
Initial claims fo’ unemployment insurance stay going up, according to data released on Thursday, afta da Labor Department wen fix da numbers fo’ bettah show seasonal factors. One survey of layoff announcements by da outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed dat job cuts wen go up 15 percent in March and wen triple from one year befo’. 😬📈
Some of da downsizing stay cuz companies in industries like trucking and warehousing wen hire plenny workas wen business stay booming during da height of da pandemic, and now dey like make dea payrolls moa in line wit less earnings. 🚚📦
“Dey wen stay so busy dey jus’ needed to throw peepo at da problems,” said Melissa Hoegener, director of recruiting at SCOPE Recruiting, one firm in Huntsville, Ala., dat focus on supply chain and logistics personnel. “Now dat tings stay steady, dey can sit back and say: ‘Eh, we need dis many peepo? We can automate dis warehouse or outsource our shipping and receiving and really cut back.’” 🤖🚢
Da peepo affected by high-profile cuts at big tech companies like Google and Meta get plenny options. Even tho industries like utilities and insurance no pay dat much, da sudden availability of workas wit tech skills stay one huge boost. 💻🔋
“Dat stay satisfying plenny of da pent-up demand fo’ dese very high skilled technology workas,” said Toby Dayton, chief executive of da employment data firm LinkUp. “Da layoffs stay super good fo’ everybody, cuz it’s really helping drive dis soft landing.” 🚀🌈
Oddah workas no goin’ have such easy time fo’ replace dea lost jobs. 🙁👷
Construction employment, fo’ example, look like it stay stalling as high mortgage rates stop buyas and builders get hard time fo’ finance commercial projects. Unlike software developers, da peepo who pour concrete and hang drywall no can take jobs oddah places without moving. 🏠🚚
Da numba of peepo working o’ looking fo’ work wen go up by 480,000, making da overall participation rate 62.6 percent. Dat still stay below da prepandemic level of 63.3 percent, cuz moa peepo reach retirement age. Da participation rate fo’ peepo in dea prime working years stay fully recovered, but da wahines wen bounce back moa than da braddahs. 👩💼👨💼
Da forces dat make peepo go back to work stay complex. Fo’ some, going back to work stay possible cuz school schedules stay moa regular, da child care workforce stay growing, and employers stay listening to da calls fo’ moa paid time off and flexible schedules. Da numba of wahines who wen say family responsibilities stay da reason dey no working wen cut in half ova da past year. 👩👧👦📚
Fo’ oddahs, inflation stay da main reason, cuz rising prices wen eat up all da savings peepo wen make during da pandemic, making dem look fo’ work. Plus, higha wages and bettah benefits from da multiyear labor shortage wen make some jobs moa attractive. 💸📈
Tessa Jameson work as one server at one Italian restaurant in San Francisco and tend bar at one local dive, all while she stay working on da college degree she neva could afford right afta high school. Dat could lead to one landscape architecture career, but Ms. Jameson say she no mind staying in da service industry since da demand fo’ labor stay making tings bettah and pay moa high. 🍝🍹
“Wateva wen happen between pre-Covid and now stay making one culture dat I stay moa comfortable participating in,” Ms. Jameson said, talking about moa respect fo’ restaurant staff. “If tings wen go back, I would be moa anxious fo’ leave.” 🍽️💼
NOW IN ENGLISH
Jobs Growth in the US Slows Down, But Continues 📈🇺🇸
The US economy saw strong job growth in March, but at a slower pace, likely due to the impact of steadily rising interest rates. Employers added 236,000 jobs during the month, a seasonally adjusted figure, according to the Labor Department’s report on Friday. This is lower than the average of 334,000 jobs added over the previous six months. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5 percent, down from 3.6 percent in February. 😃
Year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings also slowed down to 4.2 percent, the slowest pace since July 2021. This is a sign that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to combat inflation may be working. Meanwhile, the average workweek shortened as staffing shortages eased, reducing the need for workers to cover extra hours. ⏱️💵
Preston Caldwell, chief US economist at Morningstar Research, suggests the data offers hope that the Fed can slow the economy without causing a recession. “It does look like the range of options that are adjacent to what we might call a soft landing is expanding,” he said. “Wage growth has mostly normalized now without a massive uptick in unemployment. And a year ago, a lot of people were not predicting that.” 📉🕊️
President Biden welcomed the news, having stated for over a year that job creation needs to slow to about 150,000 jobs a month to curb the rapid rise in consumer prices and restore economic stability. He has sought to balance celebrating strong job growth with reassurances that inflation is starting to cool. 🎉❄️
With stock markets closed for Good Friday, bond traders provided most of the investor reaction. Yields rose, reflecting confidence that the economy remains robust enough for the Fed to proceed with further rate increases. 📊💪
Even as job creation slows, the labor market achieved something remarkable: the lowest unemployment rate on record for Black workers at 5 percent, representing the smallest-ever gap between rates for Black and white people. Historically, marginalized workers tend to get another look when recruiters have more positions to fill. ✊🏿🎯
Nevertheless, forecasters expect a significant slowdown in growth later in 2023, which could result in more layoffs as profits erode and businesses decide to shed workers. 😞📉
The March employment data, reflecting a 27th consecutive month of growth, was collected before two midsize banks failed and concerns arose about other financial institutions. This turn of events is expected to tighten lending across the economy, potentially reducing consumer spending and limiting the potential for smaller businesses to expand. 🏦🔒
The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates for more than a year to control inflation, but the bank failures complicate that effort. If the reaction is intense enough, it could even increase the chances of a deep recession. 🏛️🌪️
Fed officials raised rates at their most recent meeting on March 22 and forecast that they might raise them one more time this year. The Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, underlined that the central bank could do more or less depending on the severity of the fallout. 📈🤔
The March report is the last monthly jobs data before the next Fed meeting in early May. 🗓️👥
A contraction is already evident in an expanding range of industries, as retail, manufacturing, construction, and real estate finance—those more sensitive to borrowing costs—have either lost jobs or stayed flat over the month. 🛍️🏗️
Other sectors that had been growing swiftly, such as hospitals, hotels, and restaurants, have also experienced a slowdown. Overall, employers in leisure and hospitality remain 2.2 percent below their pre-pandemic staffing levels, and a full recovery might still be a long way off. 🏨🍽️
In a sign of what’s to come, job openings dropped sharply in February, bringing the number of openings per available worker to a level that, while still elevated, is closer to the historical average. Surveys of both manufacturers and service-industry firms came in weaker than expected this week, with more employers starting to say business is contracting rather than expanding. 📉🔍
“There’s only a handful of ways you can address that, and the primary one is reducing headcount,” said Thomas Simons, an economist at the investment banking firm Jefferies. “Even though businesses have struggled really hard to fill positions, by the end of the summer, push is going to have to come to shove.” 😣👥
Layoffs had remained low across the economy for the past year, as workers quit jobs voluntarily and companies held onto anyone who would stay. But that trend has started to change. 🔄📈
Initial claims for unemployment insurance have been trending upward, according to data released on Thursday, after the Labor Department revised the figures to better reflect seasonal factors. A survey of layoff announcements collected by the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that job cuts rose 15 percent in March and tripled from a year earlier. 📊🚫
Some of this downsizing reflects adjustments by companies in fields like trucking and warehousing that hired many workers during the height of the pandemic and are now trying to align payrolls with decreasing earnings. 🚚📦
“They were so busy they just needed to throw people at the problems,” said Melissa Hoegener, director of recruiting at SCOPE Recruiting, a firm in Huntsville, Alabama, that focuses on supply chain and logistics personnel. “Now that things are steady, they’re able to sit back and say: ‘Hey, do we need this many people? We can automate this warehouse or outsource our shipping and receiving and really cut back.'” 🤖🚢
Those affected by high-profile cuts at Silicon Valley giants like Google and Meta have plenty of options. Though industries like utilities and insurance might not pay quite as much, the sudden availability of workers with tech skills is a huge boost. 💻💡
“That is satisfying a lot of the pent-up demand for these very high skilled technology workers,” said Toby Dayton, chief executive of the employment data firm LinkUp. “The layoffs have been massively favorable to everybody because it’s really helping drive this soft landing.” 🛬🌐
Other workers may not have such an easy time replacing lost employment. Construction employment, for example, seems to be stalling as high mortgage rates deter buyers and builders struggle to finance commercial projects. Unlike software developers, those who pour concrete and hang drywall can’t take jobs elsewhere without relocating. 🏠🔨
The number of people either working or seeking employment rose by 480,000, nudging the overall participation rate up to 62.6 percent. That is still below the pre-pandemic level of 63.3 percent, as more people have reached retirement age. The participation rate for people in their prime working years has fully recovered, although women bounced back more than men. 👩💼👨💼
The forces driving people back to the job market are complex. For some, going back to work has become feasible as school schedules have become more regular, the childcare workforce has regrown.
